| # # Attrasoft PredictorPro for Windows
About New Image Classification Image Retrieval Image Examples Image Database Sound Search Image Search Engine Products Services Order Shareware/Demos Future Products Links Search This Site | 2. Total Operation in 2 Clicks 2.1 Overview 2.2 Total Operation in 2 Clicks 2.3 Predict What? 2.4 Example: Intel stock Value 2.4.1 Phase 1: Intel Raw Data 2.4.2 Operating the PredictorPro 2. Total Operation in 2 Clicks The detailed user's guide will be given in chapter 3 and 4. In this chapter, we will show you the minimum information to get started. The operation of the PredictorPro is: Link; and Run. Other than preparing the input file, the PredictorPro is completely “link and run”. No typing is required to operate this Predictor. 2.1 Overview Assume you have a large database, say you have collected 30 years of data, and you want to make intelligent decisions based on the huge amounts of information in your database. Here is your difficulty: you are overwhelmed by your terabyte data and lose a sense of the direction in the data. What are you going to do? Order Attrasoft PredictorPro. The prediction process has two phases: Phase 1: from your historical database, you will determine a data set, which consists of the relevant variables for the prediction. Then get the data for these variables, if necessary, preprocess them such as calculating the moving-average. Phase 2: Prepare all your data in one file; then in 2 clicks, you will have your answer instantaneously: Prepare Input file: this is all the data you have collected about your problem and put into one file; this file will teach the PredictorPro your problem and the value of your experience. The first click ----- link the data to the PredictorPro; The second click ----- get the prediction(s) to your question(s); Now the PredictorPro becomes one of your staff, and is ready to serve you. The predictions will be in a file opened automatically after the second click. 2.2 Total Operation in 2 Clicks Assuming in phase 1, you have accumulated the data. Formulate your raw data into a file, the input file; Link the input file to the PredictorPro by clicking "File/Open" and open the input file (first of 2 clicks). Once the file is in the PredictorPro, click a command, say "Real/+ Exponential" (second of 2 clicks). PredictorPro presents you with all possible predictions and how valuable the PredictorPro thinks each prediction is via a confidence number or rating. The confidence number is similar to the number in an Internet Search Engine: the higher that number, the more confidence the PredictorPro has in that prediction. 2.3 Predict What? The PredictorPro predicts the values of the next period or next several periods. Take stock data as an example, If you have daily data, you will predict next day's data; If you have weekly data, you will predict next week's data; If you have monthly data, you will predict next month's data; ... 2.4 Example: Intel stock Value In this section, we want to predict the Intel stock value for 10/98. 2.4.1 Phase 1: Intel Raw Data 1. Data Set A data set is your choice of the variables, which you think will give you the best prediction. We will choose the Intel stock as the sole factor for the prediction, i.e., the data set is the Intel stock. (This is, of course, only for the purpose of demonstrating how to operate the PredictorPro. Attrasoft does not recommend you use any particular data set for a stock.) 2. Data Collection Free from the Internet, we can collect the following data. In chapter 5, we will show you how to do this. Intel Corporation (INTC) Monthly prices (Nov 1991 to Nov 1998) DATE HIGH LOW CLOSE VOLUME 5m Avg. Nov-91 5.531 4.969 5.125 275020000 Dec-91 6.156 5.031 6.125 260759200 Jan-92 7.875 5.906 7.484 589994400 Feb-92 8.594 7.375 7.938 340300800 Mar-92 8.438 6.438 6.906 424595200 6.7156 Apr-92 7.406 6.125 6.688 443011200 7.0282 May-92 6.844 5.813 6.25 300004000 7.0532 Jun-92 7.219 5.969 7.125 346980000 6.9814 Jul-92 7.531 6.844 7.469 291545600 6.8876 … May-98 85.438 71.25 71.438 271927700 80.2004 Jun-98 77.625 65.656 74.125 360081300 78.8254 Jul-98 88.25 72.25 84.438 396391200 77.7754 Aug-98 92.625 70.938 71.188 440267900 76.4004 Sep-98 89 69.75 85.75 369103300 77.3878 =================================================== Oct-98 90.813 75.813 89.188 393720800 80.9378 We will split the data into two parts: Nov-91 through Sep-98 data will be used to train the PredictorPro, Oct-98 data will be used to test the PredictorPro. Note: chapter 5 will show you how to collect free stock data from the Internet. 3. Preprocessing To remove the noise, we will use the 5-month moving average, which is listed in column 6. Because this is monthly historical data, we will predict the 5-month moving average of Intel for the next month. 2.4.2 Operating the PredictorPro Step 1. Prepared Input file From the above raw data, set up the Intel file (5-month moving-average) in the following manner: The input file is: * Purpose: To predict next month Intel. Data set: 5-month moving average of Intel, Nov-91 through Sep-98 Next 5-month moving average: 10/98 80.9378 * 1 6.7156 7.0282 7.0532 6.9814 6.8876 … 80.2004 78.8254 77.7754 76.4004 77.3878 This Intel input file has three sections: Remark section: * Purpose: To predict next month Intel. Data set: 5-month moving average of Intel, Nov-91 through Sep-98 Next 5-month moving average: 10/98 80.9378 * The PredictorPro will ignore this section. Number of variables/attributes: 1 Data : 6.7156 7.0282 7.0532 6.9814 6.8876 ... Figure 2. The Intel input file. Step 2. Link the data to the PredictorPro The above input file, "D_int2a.txt", is in the default directory of the software. Click "File/Open" and open this file. This is the first of 2 clicks. The linking is completed ... just that easy. To check if the file is linked correctly, click “Data/Link” (see Figure 3)., and a dialog box will appear (see Figure 4). Figure 3. Click command: "Data/Link". Figure 4. Link the input file to the PredictorPro If the PredictorPro is linked to the data files, then the first textbox in Figure 4 should be “D_intc2a.txt”, which is the input file. We will explain the other three textboxes later. Step 3. Click command: "Real/-- Exponential" Figure 5. The "Real" Menu. Figure 5 shows the "Real" menu. "Real" means real number prediction. The other prediction is "Integer" prediction. Click "Real/-- Exponential" (second of 2 clicks) to get the answer. The running takes no time, and the following prediction file is opened automatically (See Figure 6): =================== Beginning ===================== Possibility Confidence*Probability 81.2484 6400 77.8113 10344 76.0928 4235 84.6855 273 88.1226 1 86.404 33 79.5299 168 74.3742 8320 82.9669 261 --------------------------------------------------- Weighted Average 77.476 Highest Probability 77.8113 10344 Error of each number 0.859271 =================== End ========================== As we have shown in the earlier this section, the correct answer is: DATE 5 month moving average Oct-98 80.9378 Ignoring results below 1000, the prediction is Value Probability Confidence 81.2484 ± 0.859271 0.218 6400 77.8113 ± 0.859271 0.353 10344 76.0928 ± 0.859271 0.144 4235 74.3742 ± 0.859271 0.283 8320 where 0.859271 is given by the last line of the output file. The prediction is: Weighted Average = 77.476 ± 0.859271 Highest Probability = 77.8113 ± 0.859271 (35.3 % probability) This prediction is very close to 80.9378. The probabilities of the predictions are calculated as follows: 6400 / (6400 + 10344 + 4235 + 8320) = 0.218 10344 / (6400 + 10344 + 4235 + 8320) = 0.353 ... Figure 6 The results of clicking "Real/-- Exponential" (second of 2 clicks) Online Order/Online Fax order: Attrasoft PredictorPro for Windows Version 2.8 ($494.99 + $5 US Shipping and Handling) Mail Order: 499.99 (S&H included) PredictorPro Attrasoft, Attn.: Gina P. O. Box 13051 Savannah, GA. 31406, USA Send questions or comments to: webmaster@attrasoft.com or contact us at: Attrasoft, P. O. Box 13051, Savannah, GA. 31406, USA Copyright © 2001 Attrasoft, Inc. All rights reserved.